A lot of people seem to think that Obama has the best shot at winning, but there’s a CBS news article that raises some questions about that.  Notably there’s seven factors that could individually or together serve to put a damper on Obama’s run for the White House.

1.  The Race Issue.  Everybody want’s to say it ain’t so, but let’s face it, for a lot of voters race is and always has been an issue.  You’ve got the first ever black candidate for president that has a shot at winning.  There’s a lot of people who will vote for him just because of that fact.  There’s also a lot of people who will vote against him just because of that fact.  Exactly which way that influence ends up going is anybody’s guess.

2.  Virgina is apparently an iffy situation for Obama.  According to the article, his chances there are probably right around 50 / 50.  Not exactly a commanding lead.

3.  Michigan is another state that while Obama is still ahead by a few points in the polls, there’s issues brewing that could easily tip things in favor of McCain.

4.  The Economy.  While McCain is quoted as admitting that he “never understood economics”, there’s a long standing trend that voters angry over an issue tend to be a help for Democrats and voters that are afraid because of an issue tend to help Republicans.  If the economy continues to worsen, McCain could end up winning on that issue in spite of his stated lack of understanding.  (at least so say the political experts)

5.  The “Ross Perot” effect.  Bill Clinton would not have been elected if Ross Perot had not gotten 19 percent of the vote in 1992.  Apparently there isn’t (at this point) any independent candidate that’s likely to pull much in the way of votes.  ‘Course if there were, which side would most of them come from?

6.  It seems that for the Democrats, since 1960 getting to the White House has meant “accommodating only southern whites with border-state strength”, which isn’t going to be enough for Obama.

7.  The article talks about people liking to keep the government divided but I think it’s more a matter of balance in that a lot of people will tend to vote Republican if the Democrats control Congress and vice versa.

Technorati Tags: presidential campaign, issues, reasons for concern, obama, votes

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